Four Steps to Forecast Total Market Demand Essay Example for Free

Four Steps to Forecast Total Market Demand Essay Such forecasts are crucial since companies must begin building new generating plants five to ten years before they are to come on line. But during the 1975–1985 period, load actually grew at only a 2% rate. Despite the postponement or cancellation of many projects, the excess generating capacity has hurt the industry financial situation and led to higher customer rates. ? The petroleum industry invested $500 billion worldwide in 1980 and 1981 because it expected oil prices to rise 50% by 1985. The estimate was based on forecasts that the market would grow from 52 million barrels of oil a day in 1979 to 60 million barrels in 1985. Instead, demand had fallen to 46 million barrels by 1985. Prices collapsed, creating huge losses in drilling, production, refining, and shipping investments. Bill Barnett is a principal in the Atlanta office of McKinsey Company. He is a leader of the firm’s Microeconomics Center, and his client work has focused on business unit and corporate strategy. ? In 1983 and 1984, 67 new types of business personal computers were introduced to the U. S. market, and most companies were expecting explosive growth. One industry forecasting service projected an installed base of 27 million units by 1988; another predicted 28 million units by 1987. In fact, only 15 million units had been shipped by 1986. By then, many manufacturers had abandoned the PC market or gone out of business altogether. The inaccurate suppositions did not stem from a lack of forecasting techniques; regression analysis, historical trend smoothing, and others were available to all the players. Instead, they shared a mistaken fundamental assumption: that relationships driving demand in the past would continue unaltered. The companies didn’t foresee changes in end-user behavior or understand their market’s saturation point. None realized that history can be an unreliable guide as domestic economies become more international, new technologies emerge, and industries evolve. As a result of changes like these, many managers have come to distrust traditional techniques. Some even throw up their hands and assume that business planning must proceed without good demand forecasts. I disagree. It is possible to develop valuable insights into future market conditions and demand levels based on a deep understanding of the forces behind total-market demand. These insights can Copyright 1988 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. All rights reserved. sometimes make the difference between a winning strategy and one that flounders. A forecast of total-market demand won’t guarantee a successful strategy. But without it, decisions on investment, marketing support, and other resource allocations will be based on hidden, unconscious assumptions about industrywide requirements, and they’ll often be wrong. By gauging total-market demand explicitly, you have a better chance of controlling your company’s destiny. Merely going through the process has merit for a management team. Instead of just coming out with pat answers, numbers, and targets, the team is forced to rethink the competitive environment. Total-market forecasting is only the first stage in creating a strategy. When you’ve finished your forecast, you’re not done with the planning process by any means. There are four steps in any total-market forecast: 1. Define the market. 2. Divide total industry demand into its main components. 3. Forecast the drivers of demand in each segment and project how they are likely to change. . Conduct sensitivity analyses to understand the most critical assumptions and to gauge risks to the baseline forecast. Defining the Market At the outset, it’s best to be overly inclusive in defining the total market. Define it broadly enough to include all potential end users so that you can both identify the appropriate drivers of demand and reduce the risk of surprise product substitutions. The factors that drive forecasts of total-market size differ markedly from those that determine a particular product’s market share or product-category share. For example, total-market demand for office telecommunications products nationally depends in part on the number of people in offices and their needs and habits, while total demand for PBX systems depends on how they compare on price and benefits with substitute products like the local telephone company’s central office switching service. Beyond this, demand for a particular PBX is a function of price and benefit comparisons with other PBXs. In defining the market, an understanding of product substitution is critical. Customers might behave differently if the price or performance of potential substitute products changes. One company studying total demand for industrial paper tubes had to consider closely related uses of metal and plastic tubes 4 to prevent customer switching among tubes from biasing the results. Understand, too, that a completely new product could displace one that hitherto had comprised the entire market—like the electronic calculator, which eliminated the slide rule. For a while after ATT’s divestiture, the Bell telephone companies continued to forecast volume of long-distance calls by using historical trend lines of their revenues—as if they were still part of a monopoly. Naturally, these forecasts grew more inaccurate with time as end users were presented with new choices. The companies are now broadening their market definitions to take account of heightened competition from other longdistance carriers. There are several ways you can make sure you include all important substitute products (both current and potential). From interviews with industrial customers you can learn about substitutes they are studying or about product usage patterns that imply future switching opportunities. Moreover, market research can lead to insights about consumer products. Speaking with experts in the relevant technologies or reviewing technological literature can help you identify potential developments that could threaten your industry. Finally, careful quantification of the economic value of alternative products to different customers can yield deep insights into potential switching behavior—for example, how oil price movements would affect plastics prices, which in turn would affect plastic products’ ability to substitute for metal or paper. Analyses like these can lead to the construction of industry demand curves—graphs representing the relationship between price and volume. With an appropriate definition, the total-industry demand curves will often be steeper than demand curves for individual products in the industry. Consumers, for example, are far more likely to switch from Maxwell House to Folgers coffee if Maxwell House’s prices increase than they are to stop buying coffee if all coffee prices rise. In some cases, managers can make quick judgments about market definition. In other cases, they’ll have to give their market considerable thought and analysis. A total-market forecast may not be critical to business strategy if market definition is very difficult or the products under study have small market shares. Instead, your principal challenge may be to understand product substitution and competitiveness. One company analyzed the potential market for new consumer food cans, and it concluded that growth trends in food product markets were not critical to the strategy question. What was critical was knowing the value positions of the new packagesJuly–August 1988 elative to metal cans, glass jars, and composite cans. So the company spent time on that subject. Dividing Demand into Component Parts The second step in forecasting is to divide total demand into its main components for separate analysis. There are two criteria to keep in mind when choosing segments: make each category small and homogeneous enough so that the drivers of demand will apply consistently across its various elements; make each large enough so that the analysis will be worth the effort. Of course, this is a matter of judgment. You may find it useful in aking this judgment to imagine alternative segmentations (based on enduse customer groups, for example, or type of purchase). Then hypothesize their key drivers of demand (discussed later) and decide how much detail is required to capture the true situation. As the assessment continues, managers can return to this stage and reexamine whether the initial decisions still stand up. Managers may wish to use a ‘‘tree’’ diagram like the accompanying one constructed by a management team in 1985 to study demand for paper. In this disguised example, industry data permitted the division of demand into 12 end-use categories. Some categories, like business forms and reprographic paper, were big contributors to total consumption; others, such as labels, were not. One (other converting) was fairly large but too diverse for deep analysis. The team focused on the four segments that accounted for 80% of 1985 demand. It then developed secondary branches of the tree to further dissect these categories and to determine their drivers of demand. It analyzed the remaining segments less completely (that is, via a regression against broad macroeconomic trends). Other companies have used similar methods to segment total demand. One company divided demand for maritime satellite terminals by type of ship (e. g. , seismic ships, bulk/cargo/container ships). Another divided demand for long-distance telephone service into business and residential customers and then subdivided it by usage level. And a third segmented consumer appliances into three purchase types—appliances used in new home construction, replacement appliance sales in existing homes, and appliance penetration in existing homes. In thinking about market divisions, managers need to decide whether to use existing data on segment sizes or to commission research to get an independent estimate. Reliable public information on historHARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW July–August 1988 ical demand levels by segment is available for many big U. S. industries (like steel, automobiles, and natural gas) from industry associations, the federal government, off-the-shelf studies by industry experts, or ongoing market data services. For some foreign markets and less well-researched industries in the United States, like the labels industry, you may have to get independent estimates. Even with good data sources, however, the readily available information may not be divided into the best categories to support an insightful analysis. In these cases, managers must decide whether to develop their forecasts based on the available historical data or to undertake their own market research programs, which can be timeconsuming and expensive. Note that while such segmentation is sufficient for forecasting total demand, it may not create categories useful for developing a marketing strategy. A single product may be driven by entirely different factors. One study of industrial components found that consumer industry categories provided a good basis for projecting total-market demand but gave only limited help in formulating a strategy based on customer preferences: distinguishing those who buy on price from those who buy on service, product quality, or other benefits. Such buying-factor categories generally do not correlate with the customer industry categories used for forecasting. A strong sales force, however, can identify customer preferences and develop appropriate account tactics for each one. Forecasting the Drivers of Demand The third step is to understand and forecast the drivers of demand in each category. Here you can make good use of regressions and other statistical techniques to find some causes for changes in historical demand. But this is only a start. The tougher challenge is to look beyond the data on which regressions can easily be based to other factors where data are much harder to find. Then you need to develop a point of view on how those other factors may themselves change in the future. An end-use analysis from the commodity paper example, reprographic paper, is shown in the accompanying chart. The management team, using available data, divided reprographic paper into two categories: plain-paper copier paper and nonimpact page printer paper. Without this important differentiation, the drivers of demand would have been masked, making it hard to forecast effectively. In most cases, managers can safely assume that demand is affected both by macroeconomic vari5 Components of Uncoated White Paper Making Up Total Demand (thousands of tons) End-Use Category Business Forms Commercial Printing Reprographics Envelopes Other Converting Total Demand Stationery and Tablet Books Directories Catalogs Magazines Inserts Labels Reviewed in Depth Percent of Total 1985 Demand 25% 25 20 10 5 5 5 1 or less ables and by industry-specific developments. In looking at plain-paper copier paper, the team used simple and multiple regression analyses to test relationships with macroeconomic factors like white-collar workers, population, and economic performance. Most of the factors had a significant effect on demand. Intuitively, it also made sense to the team that the level of business activity would relate to paper consumption levels. Economists sometimes refer to growth in demand due to factors like these as an ‘‘outward shift’’ in the demand curve—toward a greater quantity demanded at a given price. ) Demand growth for copy paper, however, had exceeded the real rate of economic growth and the challenge was to find what other factors had been causing this. The team hypothesized that declining copy costs had caused this increased usage. The relationship was proved by estimating the substantial cost reductions that had occurred, combining those with numbers of tons produced over time, and then fashioning an indicative demand curve for copy paper. See the chart ‘‘Understanding Copy Paper Demand Drivers. ’’) The clear relationship between cost and volume meant that cost reductions had been an important cause of past demand growth. (Economists sometimes describe this as a downward-shifting supply curve leading to movement down the demand curve. ) Further major declines in cost per copy seemed unlikely because paper costs were expected to remain flat, and the data indicated little increase in 6 price elasticity, even if cost per copy fell further. So the team concluded that usage growth (per level of economic performance) was likely to continue the flattening trend begun in 1983: growth in copy paper consumption would be largely a function of economic growth, not cost declines as in the past. The team then reviewed several econometric services forecasts to develop a base case economic forecast. Similar studies have been performed in other industries. A simple one was the industrial components analysis mentioned before, a case where the total forecast was used as background but was not critical to the company’s strategy decision. Here the team divided demand into its consuming industries and then asked experts in each industry for production forecasts. Total demand for components was projected on the assumption that it would move parallel to a weight-averaged forecast of these customer industries. Actual demand three years later was 2% above the team’s prediction, probably because the industry experts underestimated the impact of the economic recovery of 1984 and 1985. In another example, a team forecasting demand for maritime satellite terminals extrapolated past penetration curves for each of five categories of ships.

The History Of Cnc Machines

The History Of Cnc Machines Before the advent of NC machines, operator had to manipulate the hand-wheels, levers, cams to make parts. This way the ability of the operator to make the parts with required narrow tolerance was limited. There were all possibilities of some variation resulting into variation of the axis dimensions resulting into poor fittings or wastages. The productivity of the worker was low so it was a dire need to operate the machine automatically. Earlier a series of cams were put to use to move the tools as an attempt to automate the process. Though they were tedious to set but once set it gave good precision, which were what later on known as Swiss machines or precision machines. (Wildes 1985) MIT Servomechanisms Laboratory gives a good account of pioneering effort on development of numerical control of machine tools, which is as under (History of the MIT Servomechanisms Laboratory). A significant postwar project that began in 1949 and continued and evolved through the 1950s was the work that led to numerical control of machine tools. Under a contract with the Parsons Company of Michigan, William M. Pease and James O. McDonough designed an experimental numerically-controlled milling machine which received directions through data on punched paper tape. The first working model of a continuous-path numerically-controlled milling machine was demonstrated in 1952. Further research was then carried out under the sponsorship of the U.S. Air Force. Subsequently, the laboratorys Computer Application Group, led by Douglas T. Ross, developed the Automatically Programmed Tool Language (APT), an easy-to-use, special purpose programming language. Eventually, APT became the world standard for programming computer-controlled machine tools. Parsons NC Milling Machine After World War II, Parsons was busy in developing rotor blades for aviation industry. For its complexity involved in shape, it was an uphill task to achieve precision, which was an utmost requirement. With his connections with an IBM computer, he realized that it is quite possible to produce accurate contour guides, which was hitherto difficult with manual calculations. Soon he received a contract with Air force to supply an automatic contour cutting machine for production of large wing section pieces for aircraft. He successfully developed a machine, which produced parts with accuracy and precision required by the aviation industry. Meanwhile, MIT researchers were doing developmental work with various kinds of control processes. They had already done some work with Air Force Projects during World War II. With the active association of MIT, Parsons experimented with servomotors to the x and y axis and successfully controlled them using computer that read punch-cards to process instructions. This made possible to machine complex shapes required for aviation industry. With a manual milling machine it was never possible and that is how he developed the NC milling machine. (Olivo 1987) After most pioneering efforts by Parsons and MIT researchers the ball set rolling for further growth and development of NC/CNC in the later years to come. CNC Generations Broad CNC generations classification can be done with regard to the development of CNC machine as under (CNC-Web-handout): 1952 1st generation NC, The first NC controlled machine for metal processing (relays and electronic tubes) 1960 2nd generation NC, relays and electronic tubes was replaced with transistors. 1965 3rd generation, integrated circuits 4th generation NC CNC (computerized numerical Control CNC Machines) In the first and second generation NC machines, controller received a set of instructions known as programme consisted of alphanumeric characters. Through these instructions, controller regulated the motions of a machine tool such as a lathe, milling machine, cutter. Preparation of programme was done with the very basic computers and then made available to the controller via a tape. At that time, Magnetic tape recorders and floppy disk drives were used for storage and recording purposes for the programme and as such no direct links were provided between the computer and controller. Controllers tape reader used to read these recorded programmes. For the purpose of debugging the programme and correcting the errors, it was necessary to have a new tape and several of such tapes were needed before an error-free programme was made. Further, for any modification or engineering changes one was forced to prepare a new tape and so on. (Siegel 1956) Historical Events in the Evolution of NC/CNC Machines Let us peep into the past for more specific developments in reference to NC/CNC machines, its components and important accessories, which culminated into the modern day CNCs. 1950- MIT servo mechanism lab developed Numerical Control (NC) milling machine 1952-Parsons filed for a patent on Motor Controlled Apparatus for Positioning Machine Tool. The date was 5 May, 1952 1953- Using a magnetic-tape playback system, a digital control system named Numericord was developed in April 1953 by joint effort of GL, MIT and General Electric Co. (Cuttingtoolengineering 2005) 1955- NC machines commercial version was on display at Chicago Machine Tool Show. In the show, several NC machines were on display, which were punched cards or punched paper tapes driven. (Cuttingtoolengineering 2005) 1955- IBM developed automatic tool changer. (Cuttingtoolengineering 2005) 1955-Numericord NC5 was found into operation at GLs plant at Fond du Lac, WI. (History of Computer Aided Manufacturing) 1956- A year of automatic programming of NC machining. 5.1 APT Developed Douglas Ross made pioneering efforts to put automatic programming of NC machining. Being a mathematician at MIT, Ross had gone to the ServoMechanism Laboratory to work with computer systems for high-speed data processing. His research converged to the development of the Automatically Programmed Tool (APT) system. (Upping Input Speed: automating NC. Cuttingtoolengineering 2005,) Ross believed that programmer should be able to convey his or her machining instructions in a simple English kind language, which is at times rational and can be modified based on experience. Thus, Ross had removed the last significant technological impediment to utilization of NC by the manufacturing industry on a broad scale. The development of APT was a major turning point in the evolution of NC, because it settled once and for all the issue of whether or not NC could be made economically viable in the light of programming costs, Reintjes said. Justifiably then, the APT language became the U.S. standard for programming NC machine tools in 1974, and became the international standard in 1978. (Upping Input Speed: automating NC. Cuttingtoolengineering 2005) 1957- GL introduced its first 5-axis Variax NC profilers. (History of Computer Aided Manufacturing) 1957- GLs (Giddings and Lewis Machine Tool Co) produced first miller (History of Computer Aided Manufacturing) 1957- A year of first CAM software system, an NC programming tool named PRONTO. Farnum, Gregory (2005) distinctly quotes contribution of Dr. Patrick Hanratty and term him as a father of CAD/CAM and categorically mentions, Then theres the guy who is often called the father of CAD/CAM, Dr.Patrick Hanratty. Among other contributions to the field, Hanratty, in 1957, developed the first commercial CAM software system, an NC programming tool named PRONTO. Of course, if one can digitally create patterns in space to guide a machine tool, one can do the same thing for other machinery as well, a fact that wasnt lost on the fledgling robotics industry and builders of other types of industrial equipment. Thus, the direct link between CNC and CAM. 1958- The first commercial NC machining centre with an automatic toolchanger and automatic work positioning. The company was Kearney Trecker Corp., Milwaukee and product was Milwaukee-Matic II. (Makely 2005) 1960- First controller with transistor technology introduced. (Groover 2007) 1960- Direct Numerical Control (DNC) eliminated paper tape punch programmes and allowed programmers to send files directly from computer to machine tool controller. (Groover 2007) 1963- A true CAD software, namely sketchpad, evolved. (Cuttingtoolengineering 2005) 1965- CAD drafting and the sculptured surfaces developed (Cuttingtoolengineering 2005) 1967- Use of integrated circuits (ICs) in NC reduced 90 percent components and 80 percent wiring connections. (Groover, 2007) The use of integrated circuits can be considered as a major breakthrough in the evolution of CNC machines as mentioned by Makely (2005) as per the following. But true maturity in NC development, according to Paul Warndorf, vice president of technology at AMT-the Association for Manufacturing Technology, didnt come until the development of integrated circuits replaced vacuum tubes with more efficient, more reliable. (Numbers Take Control: NC machines Cuttingtoolengineering 2005) 1968- First machining centre by Kearney and Trecker (machine tool builders) marketed. (Groover, 2007) 1970s- CNC machine tool developed. (Groover, 2007) Farnum (2005) describes how CAD could make the application of CNC machine tools for variety of applications. He states: As the 70s progressed, the increasing power of computers, and the introduction of lower-cost minicomputers, made CAD accessible to a wider array of users. A host of CAD companies, many of them still in existence today, arose to meet the growing demand. This trend was furthered by the emergence of powerful UNIX workstations and PCs in the early 1980s, along with the growing power of the CAD systems themselves. Today, its hard to imagine a manufacturing firm without a CAD/CAM system or the ability to transfer digital data to CNC machine tools. (Farnum 2005) 1972- Major development of the CAD/CAM machines evolved (Minimizing Movement: multitasking. Controltoolengineering 2005) The development on CAD/CAM made possible multitasking on CNCs, thus improving the productivity to manifold. Jim Cordier, a veteran of 48 years in engineering and customer service at Hardinge Inc., Elmira, N.Y., said multitasking evolved because you wanted to do more and more with one setup. If you do a part complete in one setup, you made a more accurate part and did it quicker. (Numbers Take Control: NC machines. Cuttingtoolengineering 2005) 1976- 3D CAM/CAD systems were introduced (History of Computer Aided Manufacturing) 1980s- Graphics based computer application developed. (Groover, Mikell P.2007) 1989- Expert CAM/CAD systems were developed (History of Computer Aided Manufacturing) 1997- PC window based Open Modular Architecture Control (OMAC) systems introduced to replace firmware controllers. (Groover, 2007) A History of 5-Axis CNC Machines When someone tries to trace the history of 5-Axis Machine, it goes to even before NC as Herrin (1995) tries to convey in his article History of 5-axis machining. The some of the excerpts is mentioned from his above article. The history of 5-axis machining goes back even before NC. My first exposure to it was in 1958 on a project funded by the U.S. Air Force for the purpose of evaluating the feasibility of 5-axis machining. Cincinnati Milacron, then Cincinnati Milling Machine Co., was awarded a contract to build and test an electronic tracing version of a 5-axis vertical mill. He further describes that four major technologies that were critical to the success of 5-axis machines are: machine, control hardware, control software, and part programming software. He further opines that considerable improvement in the computer hardware is the reason that has made CNC designers to provide for advanced capability to meet the requirements of 5-axis applications at a reasonable cost. (Herrin 1995) 6.1 Why 5-axis Machines Three axis CNC machines define its ability to perform the task and movement along the three different axes simultaneously. Those are X, Y, and Z. Axis parallel to the tool spindle is known as Z axis. Three axis CNC machines work on sculptured or tapered surfaces. It is not possible to work on the complex jobs like tapping, internal holes on complex surfaces with variable curvatures. Certain limitations of three axis machine forced the developer to think about the five-axis machine which has varied application in myriad of industries. Five-axis machines are built by adding two axes that rotate around either Y or Z axis. There are mainly three types of 5-axis machines. (A). A Dedicated 5-axis Machining Centre. The biggest drawback with such machines is that their range of motion is limited to +/- 30 degrees. When it is needed to have steeper angle of cut, manual intervention is required. They are not as rugged as three-axis machines (B). A Tilting/Rotary Table Type A tilting-rotary table is mounted to the bed of a (three-axis) CNC machine. They are available in the market for several years. Advantage is that they can be used by small and big shops alike for many machining jobs. The good thing is that it provides possibility to tilt the part at various angles and thus machining is possible at various sides of the part resulting to the real five-axis machining. However, tilting-rotary table machines exert limit on workpiece with regard to its width, weight, length, height. Besides, tilting tables are very large and cover up host machines working space in large amount. At times, it reduces the work space by as much as 75 percent. They are good for smaller parts. They pose a difficulty in holding the part when heavy cutting operations are to be carried out. Size of the workpiece and its weight pose a limitation for machining in these types of machines. (C). Spindle Head Attachments Type The major benefit of a spindle head attachment is that it has full access of the machining centres working envelope. There is no restriction on the size of the workpiece required to be machined. They are fully programmable and any three-axis machine can be converted to a real five-axis machining centre. It is possible to add tilting capability of +/- 90 degrees. It can also have full rotary motion of 360-degree. The attachment can convert any 3-axis machine to 5-axis machine in less than 30 minutes. Since this head attachment is portable, it provides flexibility and rigidity of three-axis machine and work well for machining of variety of jobs. Because this unique head is portable and can be mounted in less than 30 minutes, it allows the owner to benefit from the accuracy and rigidity of the three-axis mill for significant metal removal then mount the attachment to complete five-axis profiling, holes, pockets, etc. The cost is similar to that of the larger tilt-rotary tables. 6.2 The Benefits of Machining with Five Axes It eliminates a need to have multiple setups for refitting the workpiece at different angles. This definitely saves time and reduces errors. It also eliminates the need to have costly fixtures, tooling for holding the workpiece in place. The complex jobs like tapping, internal holes on a complex surfaces can be machined that are otherwise not possible. Five-axis technology also eliminates multiple setups required to re-position the workpiece at complex angles. This not only saves time, but greatly reduces errors and costly tooling and fixture expenses required to hold the workpiece in place. It also provides the ability to machine complex parts that are not otherwise possible-including holes, pockets and tapping required to be normal to a complex surface. To a mold maker, it provides following benefits. Machining time greatly reduced by using a flat bottom end mill by using full diameter of the cutter Side milling of the angled surfaces can be done with less number of passes on the complex surface. Much better surface finish can be achieved eliminating ribbing from ball-nose end mills. Cut down time and labour on manual millwork/handwork required to clean up convex or concave kellered surfaces. Why CNC Became so Important? Swamidass (2002) has distinctly defined the need of CNC machines stating: A CNC machine tool is a self-contained machine, where the tool-cutting movements, spindle speeds, tool exchange and other operations are controlled by a part programme executed by the computer controlled based at the machine tool. The machine design which holds the tool used to cut into the work piece. Conventional machine tools (lathes, drill presses, milling machines) are not computer controlled. The operation is done by skilled craftsman. There can be variations to dimensions on parts made on a conventional tool. The elimination of this variation is one objective (benefit) of automating the discreet part production process. The Historic Developments and Its Significance on CNC Machines It is important to understand that why all these mile stone achievements were so significant in overall evolution of CNC machines. Let us take some of them. 8.1 CNC Control A programme is interpreted by CNC Control. It activates the series of commands in given sequence and will initiate required function, set motion for axis and carry out necessary instructions mentioned in the programme. This amply proves that how important controller is in overall functioning of the CNC machines. State-of-the-art present day CNC Controls carry out several other functions like editing the programme due to some error. It also has a dry run to check and verify the correctness of programme. Moreover, it also allows operator to provide certain important inputs separate from the programme such as tool length values. In short, it controls all the functions of the machine and keeps track of it as and when needed. 8.2 Changing the Tool Automatically Centres have capacity to hold many tools in a tool magazine. As per the requirement tool can be automatically placed in the spindle for machining. 8.3 Spindle Speed and Activation The spindle can be turned in a forward and reverse direction and speed can be notified in RPM. When required, it can be turned off. 8.4 CAM System For a simple application, the CNC programme can be developed manually by operator, which is also the best way to develop the programmes. When it comes to more complicate applications, it becomes tedious and difficult to write the programme. There comes a CAM (a computer aided manufacturing) system into picture. CAM is a software programme, which runs on a computer and helps CNC programmer to complete the programming process. It can also work with CAD developed by the companys design and engineering department. Machine operator has to specify the machining operations and based on that CAM will have created the CNC programme as if it is written manually saving time, effort and complexities of the functions. (Momingstar 1993) DNC System Once the programme is developed, it is required to be loaded into the CNC control. But when available memory on CNC controller is not sufficient to accept the programme then the need of DNC (distributive numerical control) comes into the picture. It was like a computer device that used to be connected to one or several CNC machines. However, with the advent of PCs during the 1990s ended the utility of DNC controls. (Momingstar 1993) Current CNC Machines Todays CNC are much faster and offers automation features, which were never heard before. With modern machining centre axis-positioning requirements have specifically increased and tool management functions have become more complex. This forces to have far greater processing power to manage many complex functions. Caussin (1999) has given a very good account of the controls that CNCs are capable for and they are described as under: 9.1 The Heart of CNC-Motion Control CNC machines are known for their automation, precision and consistent motion controls. CNC machines use motion control in a way, which can be called as revolutionary. Motions could be either linear or rotary. In conventional machine tools, these motions are caused by the use of cranks and handwheels. But the programmed commands initiate the motion in CNC machines. The motion type, motion rate (feed rate), motion type and which-axis-to-move all that are programmed with CNC machine tools. A CNC command conveys the drive motor to rotate specific number of times, which causes the rotation of the ball screw. The ball screw, in turn, moves to the linear axis. A feedback device confirms that specified number of rotations have taken place. . 9.2 CNC Speed and Feed Rates Now a days, dual processors or even parallel processors are in demands to increase the processing speed. It can notify the broken tools and necessary inspection can be done at machine centre itself. Parallel processors are employed to increase the speed of complex task. It is capable to change the feed rates based on the spindle load parameters. This reduces the required processing time. Further, depending upon the actual tool load, it can control and monitor the feed rate so as to avoid any damage to the tool. A feed rate will also determine when to change the tool when it reduces to the less than certain percentage of the normal. 9.3 Voltage Fluctuation and Loads They can also monitor voltage fluctuations to decide if a tool has broken. CNC can locate if some catastrophic problem is there with the tool and it will shut down the process. 9.4 Probing It can probe in a variety of ways to reduce setup time, as many controls have number of setup features like diameter offsets and tool length. That is to say that with an automated tool offset feature, it can set offsets for number of tools in a few minutes. Probes also facilitate setting the Z fixture offset automatically for speedy processes. It also allows setting for the X-Y axes automatically by imparting an appropriate programmeme. While machining a casting, it is required to verify the datum point and there also a probe will save considerable time. A feature known as rotation searching will probe the casting and work out the angle of difference and rotate the programme accordingly. Off line inspection of parts is a time consuming process but here also CNC will allow the use of a probe and verify its measurements. By probing a part it can also ascertain tool wear for its replacement. CNC can be programmed so that the tool will be probed as part of the machining cycle. It is so automatic that as the tool touches the probe, the next tool is loaded and the machining goes on. If it does not touch the probe then programme stops further machining. 9.5 Better Axis Synchronization State-of-the-art technology of the present day CNCs offer better control and make possible the synchronization of the Z axis with the spindle and rest of the system. That results into the possibility of rigid tapping which delivers high level of accuracy. Perfect synchronization between X-Y and Z axes makes helical interpolation possible so that very cost-effective threading on holes over 1 inch can be carried out. It also makes possible threads in blind holes, pipe threads and threads in holes in odd-shaped parts. 9.6 Connectivity Present day CNCs offer possibility to communicate with other processors. This saves a lot of time of the operator to set communication parameters from his PC to the machining centre. Nowadays CNCs offer the capacity to connect to the internet. Companies with global operations are greatly benefitted from this so that they can transfer their programmers to other locations. So todays CNCs provide a very high level of automation. Any skillful operator can use all the the features to increase his own and companys productivity. The Future of CNC The future development of CNCs will always depend upon the other technologies, which are developing simultaneously. Even innovators like John Parsons and others never thought of the present day achievements of CNC machines. At that time, they could not have visualized in their dreams that we would have colour graphics, high speed mega hertz microprocessors, touch screen CRTs and so on. Similarly it is difficult to visualize for us now how new technologies will develop in the next 20-30 years. However, one common factor that can be described is a need based development and innovation, which will not only continue but will have an accelerated pace. Vonasek (2009) interviewed many industry experts and described some of the possible future developments, which can be listed as under. CNC machines with more integration toward loading and unloading systems. Integration between CAD programmes and the CAM software for the machine, making connection between workpiece production and actual product development more feasible. More energy efficient and increased productivity. Faster and more powerful drive systems with even greater accuracy. CNC routers with more application Conclusions As science will make inroads in artificial intelligence, it is quite likely that future CNC machines will turn more and more user friendly but that will come with a cost attached to it. The sophistication will bring many new features but affordability will be a big question for many small and medium sized companies. However, in all likelihood basic CNC machines with 3-axis movements will be a preferred choice for common applications, which do not come under purview of high-tech areas. The future of CNCs is extremely exciting and rewarding. It can be said that CNCs have always been the back bone of engineering industries and will remain like that for future years to come.

Louisa May Alcott and Her Work Essay -- Biography Biographies Essays

Louisa May Alcott and Her Work      Ã‚   Louisa May Alcott was a great writer of her time and is the perfect example of how mixed messages during the American Renaissance affected the lives of young women everywhere. In the book Little Women Louisa gives Marmee the appearance and attitudes of her own mother, Abba Alcott. Her mother once wrote women should assert their, "right to think, feel, and live individually ·be something in yourself." In contrast, Louisaà ¢s father, Bronson Alcott, felt that Louisa was more of a challenge because she was willful like her mother and should be taught to control her impulses. The American Renaissance had a profound effect on Bronson Alcottà ¢s educational theories and this in turn affected the life and writingà ¢s of his daughter Louisa May Alcott.    Louisa May Alcott was born in 1832 to Bronson and Abba Alcott. Abba Alcott was the daughter of Colonel Joseph May who was a supporter of womenà ¢s rights and abolition. Louisa was somewhat spirited, and she came by it naturally, so her father blamed her mother for this. Her father was a transcendentalist, and he believed that his lighter coloring betokened a deeper spirituality and closer connection to divinity (Saxton 205). Bronson felt Louisa could not control herself because she was born with dark hair like her mother. He referred to her as the "possessed one" "pathetic" and "bound in chains ·which she could not break"(Sanderson 43). This somewhat clashed with his other belief that children were considered blank slates, or tablulae rasae. This theory simply states that the mind is in its hypothetical primary blank or empty state befo... ...ffered her much time to think about schooling and childrearing. So her book Little Women is almost an autobiographical account of her own life as well as a critical study of characters and events during the American Renaissance period.                      Works Cited:    Alcott,Louisa May. Little Women. New York: Signet, 1983.    Elbert,Sarah, A Hunger for Home: Louisa May Alcott and Little Women (Philadelphia: Temple,1984), 86.    Russett, Cynthia Eagle. Sexual Science: The Victorian Construction of Womanhood. Cambridge: Harvard U P, 1989.    Sanderson, Rena. "A Modern Mephistopheles: Louisa May Alcottà ¢s Exorcism of Patriarchy." American Transcendental Quarterly 5 (1991): 41-55.    Saxton, Martha. Louisa May Alcott:A Modern Biography. New York: Noonday Press, 1995.

Factors Contributing to Americas War With Mexico :: American America History

Factors Contributing to America's War With Mexico In 1825 President John Quincy Adams appointed Joel Poinsett as the first U.S. minister to Mexico. His first assignment was to persuade the Mexican government to sell the U.S. the province of Texas, thus continuing the rapid expansion of the American democracy. The United States continued to pursue Texas with little success for the next 20 years. It was not until December 1845 when the U.S. finally annexed Texas by a joint resolution (and thus simple majority) . Immediately following the Texas acquisition, and with U.S.-Mexico relations swiftly deteriorating, the U.S. wanted the Mexican province of California, mainly for her harbours San Frasisco and San Diego. The American policy towards Mexico which ensued in the following years was governed almost exclusively by President James Polk's personal opinions and actions, as well as Nicholas Trist's defiant behavior; a manifestation of the state-centric theory in which key individual decision makers govern policy. In addition, Polk's policies were secondarily influenced by the consideration of relative power, American mass ideology, and Public opinion. In 1845 President Polk began, cofidentially from the public, considering the annexation of California. Polk's initial desire was to simply purchase California, attempting to maintain peace. He soon learned this would be impossible. When Polk ordered General Taylor to cross the Nueces River and eventually to fortify on the Rio Grande, he fully understood the possilble consequences of these actions. In fact, by deploying Taylor and his troops, Polk putting a slow squeeze on the Mexicans which would leave them with no other option than to strike back. Polk waited for the initial attack to be made by the Mexicans and then struck back. Polk claimed that American blood had been spilled on American soil, thus garnering enough public and congressional support to declare war on Mexico safe from domestic unrest. Norman Graebner states that, " Polk was too astute a politician to favor any cause until public opinion had crystallized "1 Although the war decleration contained no reference to the territorial conquest, Polk's persaonal diary conveys his clandestine intentions of acquiring the much coveted California as well as New Mexico. The intentions of the President to occupy Mexico undoubtedly took into consideration public opinion, but the most prominent reason for the decleration of war was Polk's belief that california was a strong economic and militarily strategic addition to the U.S. Secretary of Navy George Bancraft noted that the acquisition of California was among Polk's top four priorities from the outset of his administration, however, Polk had kept this under wraps. Glenn Price also points out that, ". Factors Contributing to America's War With Mexico :: American America History Factors Contributing to America's War With Mexico In 1825 President John Quincy Adams appointed Joel Poinsett as the first U.S. minister to Mexico. His first assignment was to persuade the Mexican government to sell the U.S. the province of Texas, thus continuing the rapid expansion of the American democracy. The United States continued to pursue Texas with little success for the next 20 years. It was not until December 1845 when the U.S. finally annexed Texas by a joint resolution (and thus simple majority) . Immediately following the Texas acquisition, and with U.S.-Mexico relations swiftly deteriorating, the U.S. wanted the Mexican province of California, mainly for her harbours San Frasisco and San Diego. The American policy towards Mexico which ensued in the following years was governed almost exclusively by President James Polk's personal opinions and actions, as well as Nicholas Trist's defiant behavior; a manifestation of the state-centric theory in which key individual decision makers govern policy. In addition, Polk's policies were secondarily influenced by the consideration of relative power, American mass ideology, and Public opinion. In 1845 President Polk began, cofidentially from the public, considering the annexation of California. Polk's initial desire was to simply purchase California, attempting to maintain peace. He soon learned this would be impossible. When Polk ordered General Taylor to cross the Nueces River and eventually to fortify on the Rio Grande, he fully understood the possilble consequences of these actions. In fact, by deploying Taylor and his troops, Polk putting a slow squeeze on the Mexicans which would leave them with no other option than to strike back. Polk waited for the initial attack to be made by the Mexicans and then struck back. Polk claimed that American blood had been spilled on American soil, thus garnering enough public and congressional support to declare war on Mexico safe from domestic unrest. Norman Graebner states that, " Polk was too astute a politician to favor any cause until public opinion had crystallized "1 Although the war decleration contained no reference to the territorial conquest, Polk's persaonal diary conveys his clandestine intentions of acquiring the much coveted California as well as New Mexico. The intentions of the President to occupy Mexico undoubtedly took into consideration public opinion, but the most prominent reason for the decleration of war was Polk's belief that california was a strong economic and militarily strategic addition to the U.S. Secretary of Navy George Bancraft noted that the acquisition of California was among Polk's top four priorities from the outset of his administration, however, Polk had kept this under wraps. Glenn Price also points out that, ".

The Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798 :: American America History

The Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798 The debate of the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798 revealed bitter controversies on a number of issues. Most of the controversies had, however, arose even before these acts; as far back as the penning of the Constitution. The writers of the Constitution knew that as time proceeded, the needs and demands of the nation and of the people would change, leading to controversy. By not assigning specific powers to specific groups/parties, governments, they unintentionally created a vast problem in the years to come. Subsequently following the ratification of the constitution, two leading groups formed; the Federalists and the Antifederalists, each believing in exact opposite interpretations of the Constitution. The Federalist Party was headed by the newly appointed Secretary of the Treasury, Alexander Hamilton, who thought the interpretation of the Constitution should be very loose. Hamilton believed the Constitution encompassed powers other than those authorized or enumerated. These hidden powers, claimed Hamilton, were implied powers. Hamilton stated it would be essential that the federal government should gain control over any later added account to the nation. Significantly, Hamilton aspired to put these implied powers to use in requisition to build a powerful and domineering central government. In opposition to Hamilton?s Federalist Party, Jefferson who believed in strict interpretation of the Constitution. Jefferson anticipated that everything should be done through strict evaluation and a laws should abide by what is written. Although Jefferson was not a Federalist, he was also not an Antifederalist; he was a Democratic-Republican, a composite of the two. Jefferson vindicated that all powers not enumerated by the Constitution are obtained by the States. Issues between the two groups lead to the imperative question: should a strong central government be established or should each individual state have control? The attacks of the succeeding debate and public scurrility led to the Sedition Act. This act prohibited intermingling and conspiracy against the America government and the correspondence of scandalous and malicious writings against the government or its officials, under penalty of a fine or imprisonment. Succeeding the Sedition Act, the Republicans turned to the stat es arguing that federal government had strode past their powers; the powers delegated to it by the states through the Constitution. Therefore the states acquired the right to repeal the act. Another issue was what to do about the problem of immigration that rapidly increased after the Revolution.

Journeys End Courseowkr Essay

Explain the ways in which R. C. Sherriff conveys a sense of the horror of war in Journey’s End with detailed reference to three extracts from the play. How could a film director enhance this sense of horror on the screen? Journeys End, the seventh most famous play written by R. C Sherriff in 1929, set in Saint-Quentin, France, in 1918, gives us brief glimpse into the experiences of the officers of a British Army infantry company in World War I by showing us 6 days in a dugout of the front line. It is about a 21 year old Captain Stanhope, and after having spent nearly three years in the trenches without any significant leave, has taken to drinking heavily to control his nerves and to ease the stress of trench warfare. The play brings us through many different themes and genre’s throughout, from death, to love and friendship, comadeship, to ‘class’, and the scarring effects of war, and to the horror’s of war. What interests me is that the play stays only on the single set of what is the dugouts. They are dark, underground rooms where the officers of a British company eat, sleep and talk about what is going on in the trenches just outside, yet you can still, yourself, experience what the war was like. You are not faced with your usual heroic commander who saves the day in the end, instead there is Stanhope, a heavy drinker, affected by three years of war. And the play doesn’t have courageous battle scenes and huge explosions, or a valiant death bed scene. Instead, the horror’s of war are portrayed through the waiting and the suspense of not knowing what’s going to happen next, the characters trying to find security and comfort in anyway possible, the way they would do anything to get out of there. Fear and cowardice is shown a lot in this play, which is very different from your usual courageous soldiers, ready for battle. The authenticity of the play is what makes it original. It actually shows what really went on in the trenches. A particular, during act two, the audience experience a one of the soliders, Hibbert, trying to get out of the war but pretending that he had neuralgia. Hibbert is becoming effected from the war, and is generally scared of having to go up and fight. By now in the play, the men are expecting an attack in about two days, and as it draws closer, Hibbert is becoming more nervous and terrified. At first, he tries hinting the fact that he is supposedly â€Å"ill† towards the commander, Stanhope, but in the end, he almost impatiently declares that he has to â€Å"go down† the line to a hospital, when he says â€Å"It’s no good. I’ve tried damned hard, but I must go down. † Stanhope, a commander three years, has already seen this sort of behaviour and many men trying to get out of going to battle, and obviously see’s past this or does not think that neuralgia is an excuse to go to hospital. The scene goes on to the point where Stanhope and Hibbert get into a struggling fight, where Hibbert asks Stanhope to shoot him. This shows the horror’s of war because the character Hibbert is desperate to get out and go home because he knows that the attack is near. It’s not the actual war and the actual battle that is particularly horrifying, but having to wait for it, knowing that it’s going to happen, and being not completely one hundred percent sure that you’re going to come out alive is what is haunting Hibbert. The director could develop the horror of this scene on the screen by making the sounds of the distant guns and explosions a bit more taunting, almost as if Hibbert is getting more and more scared as the attack comes closer. Hibbert should also be shorter than Stanhope because Stanhope is more of an intimidating figure who is in charge, whilst Hibbert is a cowering soldier trying to get home. The actor playing Hibbert shout also be stuttering, not sure what to say or do because Stanhope is telling him that â€Å"No man’s sent down unless he’s very ill. There’s nothing wrong with you. † Hibbert is inconsolable and should be acting like he’s trying to make up more excuses why he should be sent home, almost pleadingly, as he says lines like â€Å"Stanhope – if only you knew how awful I feel – Please do let me go by -. † Hibbert gets very distressed and says things like â€Å"What the hell-! † and Stanhope and him get into a fight. Stanhope should be stronger and more skilled than Hibbert as he is trying to get away and disobey him, so the thrusting and the struggles from Hibbert should be pathetic and weak, quivering, and Stanhope should be firm and almost unfazed. The whole point of this scene is having to face reality and not really believing what you waited for, for so long, and feared was going to finally happen. The lighting should be dark and there should be shadows on Hibbert’s face, showing how distraught he is and possibly the lack of sleep. There should be a lot of close up shots as well to see character reactions, and some long shots to show the character’s difference and maybe, their similarity, how they are both afraid but are reacting but are handling it in different ways. A lot in the play, we see a lot of how the men cope with the dread of being in the war, and the upcoming attacks. The constant talk of food whenever the topic of attacks and the war comes into the conversation, Stanhope’s drinking problems, and pretending they have illnesses so they could have a shot at trying to go home. Osborne is seen as an â€Å"uncle† figure between the officers for his avuncular manner, and at one point in the play, Osborne is reading an extract from Lewis Carroll’s Alice in Wonderland. Raleigh questions him on why he is reading a children’s book which doesn’t make sense, but it seems that Osborne is comforting himself by going back to times where he was safe and secure in his childhood memories. Before Osborne reads the extract from Alice In Wonderland, Raleigh and him were talking about the raid, possibly lots of dramatic pauses, trying to avoid eye contact, when Osborne quickly changes the subject and reads more of Alice In Wonderland, leading them into a completely different conversation about Raleigh’s home town. This scene should be acted as if Osborne is showing his first vulnerability in the play, taking comfort in his childhood memories, when he was away from the war, and in a safe and secure environment. When Raleigh comes over, he tries to adopt his fatherly figure. Raleigh is still very new to all this, so he is very naive and almost acts as if he is looking forward to this raid. The actors should say the lines from Alice In Wonderland as if they were haunting and not comforting at all. Osborne and Raleigh should be quite awkward and trying to avoid eye contact, sadly contemplating what they miss. Another horror of war portrayed in this play is the lack of certain possessions and things that the men cannot have whilst in the dug out. It being good food, comfort, sleep and even women. Throughout the play, the men are constantly referring back to food or their lives back home, and at one point, looking at pictures of naked women together. In the war, the men are deprived from these things. The deaths of two of the most important characters in the play Osborne, the paternal figure, and Raleigh, the figure of innocence and naivety are extremely important, as are their effects on Stanhope and are another horror of war. When Raleigh is dying from a shell hitting his back, he is paralysed, and is with Stanhope in his dying moments. Stanhope, who, from his drinking and paranoia, had always been very distant and cold towards Raleigh because he thought that he could write home to his sister about how much of a wreck he was, was now showing a new and comforting side of himself, calling Raleigh â€Å"Jimmy† and â€Å"old boy. † Even now, Raleigh is naive, thinking that there is something on his legs as he cannot move them, saying that he is â€Å"feeling rotten, lying down here when everyone else is up there. † By now, Stanhope would be desperately trying to comfort Raleigh, hoping that he would get lucky and possibly survive his injury, but through this scene you can tell that Raleigh’s voice is getting even more distant and softer as he is slowly getting weaker. The lighting should be soft and with some shadows to represent Raleigh’s fading life and the sound of the raid should still be going on. When Raleigh dies, Stanhope is left alone to face the rest of the war on his own, another revulsion of war. This student written piece of work is one of many that can be found in our AS and A Level War Poetry section.

Chapter Review Questions

There are several different meanings to Web server. There is e-mail server. E-mail server handles incoming and outgoing e-mail and manages e-mail activity. Another type of Web server Is database server. The server computer on which database management software runs is database server. The computer in which a company runs its accounting and inventory software is called transaction server. These are all different types of computer hardware and software that may be found In electronic commerce operations.Our company utilizes each different Web server names mentioned above. If the company computers are down we contact our IT Department so they can analyze what part of the server has failed. 6. The difference between client-level and server-level e-mail filtering is basically one Is managed on an Individual users' computer and one Is managed on a mall server of a company and/or an individual's computer. Spam can get through one filter but be trapped by another filter even though both cli ent-level and server-level are utilized. Both filtering systems Identify black lists and white lists. Which are common basic content-filtering techniques.A black list spam filter can be implemented at the individual, organization, or ISP level. Some companies review a black list, such as Spam and Open Relay Blocking System to Identify spammed. However. The black list spammed change their e-mail servers, making it difficult for businesses to keep up. The white list spam filter is examined by From addresses and compares them too list of known sender addresses. This filter Is usually applied at the Individual user level. The drawback of using this filer is that sometimes it will not recognize an address ND will reject the email or place in a separate folder to review at a later time.Our company utilizes both client-level and server-level e-mail filtering to protect proprietary information. Exercise 1. ALEX – Phonologic Exchange is a company that supports Apache Web server softwa re. The company will provide technical support and has a support team that will provide: Research and Recommendations, Configure and usage, and Troubleshooting and bugs. Phonologic gives you one number to call for all your support needs. The company will automatically give you 2417 product support hotlist and developer support. You can customize the services you need with Penology.The company allows for you to customize your support needs by offering different packages: Silver, Gold & Platinum. The company will give you support whether the problem originated or as a result of complex Interactions between software. As well the company has front line support experts on Apache Web Server to answer questions and pinpoint the source of the problem. ALEX also offers Apache toy 2 to assist you. IBM Support for Apache Greenroom is another company that offers support. IBM offers expert technical support from the Apache Software Foundation.The companies key benefits include: Multiple Support Options, You can choose from entry or enhanced support, Direct Leakage to the Apache community, thus ensuring that IBM will contribute all bug fixes and ensure new features are added, and offer value-added products. The IBM site lists the system requirements should you choose to use their product. If you choose to purchase the entry level support the cost is $1,090 for 12 months of support. The IBM site is very basic and doesn't give a great deal of product information for Apache. However, the site does cross sell other products and services that IBM offers.